6-21-07 last post! (lie)

Final Blog on the old Web Site:How far can we fall?As many of you know, a bunch of collectors recently got together and purchased Lloyd Olsen a NIB Spiderman. There is video of the event up on You Tube. It's a very interesting 2 part video to watch because it shows you just how far the industry/hobby has fallen. In the video (this is my interpretation), Lloyd is surprised by Captain Jack of Pinball Sales fame with the delivery of a NIB Spiderman. At first Jack tells Lloyd that he has a delivery of the Spiderman that was ordered by Lloyd. Mr. Olsen is shocked by this news and says that he did not order the game and is not in a position to purchase one. In my opinion, Lloyd seems almost angry and obviously doesn't have the business capacity to purchase this very important game.While I think the contributors did a very generous thing in donating the game, I think this also illustrates how close our hobby is to death. In 1992 a company named WMS sold over 20,000 units of a game named The Addams Family. In 1997 WMS produced a game, Medieval Madness, that would soon sell for well over $10,000 (those days came and went). In 2004 a new entry into the pin wars, Stern produced a game, Lord of the Rings, that sold in total over 6,000 units.Now we are here in 2007 and in a position where we are having to give games away to move them out the door. Since Mr. Olsen is one of the last "operators" in the country, it speaks volumes that he wouldn't be purchasing one of the hottest games in years, Steve Ritchie's Spiderman. Imagine anyone giving away a game to anyone operating games in 1992. It just wouldn't have happened.Meanwhile, sales of pre-owned games has fallen to an all-time low. I am offered games on a daily basis and it has gotten to the point where SOME of the sellers are almost begging me to take them off their hands (note: some not all-some collectors are offering me amazing games at low pricing, but don't beg because they are financially secure). Since it's summer time, a lot of people blame the slow sales on the season, but I remember very clearly that the last few Holiday seasons have been nothing special for selling games. If you are counting on December or January to make your games double in value, you can probably forget it. Game values are game values, and as a high end collector I can tell you that, I enjoy spending money just as much in June as I do right before Christmas. In fact, I would rather buy my games in the summer, because during the holidays, I have a bunch of gifts to buy for others that tie up all of my finances.It's obvious that the hobby is dying. The only answer is why. Some people blame it on the end of home equity loans, while some blame it on collectors just plain old running out of room for additional games and others blame it on NAVL and the high shipping costs. I've voiced my own beliefs that the "normal collectors" have been cast aside in favor of the "fringe" element of flamers on RGP who are more determined to rip into each other than create an organized and clean hobby. If you are lucky enough to sell a pre-owned game, thank your lucky stars, because you are one of the few. I feel this will seriously effect NIB sales of Stern, because with HUO prices so low, how many times can a collector take such a serious hit with the economy on the skids? We are heading into the final year of the Bush presidency and traditionally, the final year of an 8 year presidential run, is a very slow time for the economy. Add in all the other factors effecting the hobby and you have an opportunity to see the second half of 2007 and all of 2008 being the worst years ever for pinball.My prediction/opinion is that within 18 months this hobby will look dramatically different with new games no longer being massed produced. I believe the next coming of Cactus Canyon, Wizard Blocks, Brooks and Dunn etc ... is right around the corner. I just wonder what that title will be?Wheel of Fortune, 24, Batman, CSI ????I hope I am wrong, but have a seriously feeling that this will be my most accurate prediction yetI think the "hobby" should have been more open to normal collectors and less concerned with letting the freak element decide what is good and bad.gary/arizona